{"title":"Philip Tetlock","description":"\u003cp\u003ePhilip Tetlock’s works explore the art and science of prediction, blending psychology, decision-making, and practical wisdom. His books invite readers to understand how forecasting can be improved through rigorous analysis and open-minded thinking.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eIdeal for those intrigued by cognitive processes and strategic insight, Tetlock’s writing offers a fresh perspective on judgement and the complexities of anticipating future events. His contributions enrich the Education \u0026amp; Reference category with thought-provoking ideas and evidence-based approaches.\u003c\/p\u003e","products":[{"product_id":"superforecasting-by-dan-gardner-9781847947154","title":"Superforecasting","description":"\u003cdiv class=\"book-description\"\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA ground-breaking new work on improving our ability to predict future events.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eThe international bestseller\u003c\/em\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003e'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.'\u003c\/em\u003e Daniel Kahneman, author of \u003cem\u003eThinking, Fast and Slow\u003c\/em\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e_________________________\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eWhat if we could improve our ability to predict the future?\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eEverything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eIn a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project - an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions - has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eIn \u003cem\u003eSuperforecasting\u003c\/em\u003e, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit - whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e_________________________\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003e'The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In other words, to everyone.'\u003c\/em\u003e Economist\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003e'A terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely read . . . Highly recommended.'\u003c\/em\u003e Independent\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003e'The best thing I have read on predictions . . . \u003cem\u003eSuperforecasting\u003c\/em\u003e is an indispensable guide to this indispensable activity.'\u003c\/em\u003e The Times\u003c\/p\u003e\n\u003c\/div\u003e","brand":"Penguin Random House NZ","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":67712167772396,"sku":"9781847947154","price":37.99,"currency_code":"NZD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0705\/7784\/8556\/files\/f768165192cd96285a60b2a3b5984c92.jpg?v=1791863321"}],"url":"https:\/\/bookhero.pro\/collections\/philip-tetlock.oembed","provider":"Book Hero","version":"1.0","type":"link"}